Based on the assumption that “vaccines and treatments will come out in 2021, the global economy will start to recover in the second half of the year, and electricity demand and industrial output will increase”, the IEA believes that energy demand will rebound sharply. In terms of oil demand, IEA believes that the excess supply of crude oil will be gradually eliminated by the end of 2021, and the supply and demand of crude oil will be balanced again. IEA predicts that in 2021, the annual average daily oil consumption will reach 96.9 million barrels per day, and the demand for gasoline and diesel will be very strong, returning to 99% of the pre epidemic level. In terms of coal demand, according to the analysis and forecast of coal 2020-2025 released by IEA, global coal consumption is expected to rebound in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, which is mainly driven by the demand growth of China, India and Southeast Asian countries.
In addition, due to the expected increase in electricity demand and natural gas prices, the coal consumption in Europe and the United States is likely to increase in 2021, or it will be the first increase in coal consumption in Europe and the United States in the past decade.Renewable energy will lead the development of global power industry. Solar photovoltaic and onshore wind power are already the cheapest sources of electricity in most countries, the IEA said. IEA predicts that in 2021, the installed capacity of renewable energy based on solar energy and wind energy will increase by nearly 10%, and the power generation capacity of renewable energy will increase by more than 6%, which will further compress the traditional energy and expand the proportion of renewable energy in the power structure from 28% in 2020 to 29%. The cumulative installed capacity of solar energy and wind energy will exceed that of natural gas in 2023 and coal in 2024. By 2025, solar photovoltaic alone will account for 60% of the new installed capacity of renewable energy, and wind energy will account for 30%. Driven by further cost reduction, by 2025, renewable energy will account for 95% of the new installed capacity of global electricity. Renewable energy will surpass coal and become the largest power source in the world. By then, renewable energy is expected to provide one third of the world’s electricity.
The focus of American energy policy has shifted from traditional energy to clean energy. Facing the new administration of the United States, the energy policy of the United States will also undergo major changes. Compared with the trump administration, which relies on traditional energy and strives to achieve net energy exports, Biden administration’s energy policy goal is to ensure that the United States achieves 100% clean energy economy and net zero carbon emissions by 2050. According to the clean energy revolution and environment plan released by Biden’s team, Biden will immediately take a series of measures after he takes office, including rejoining the Paris Agreement, vigorously promoting the wide application of clean energy, taking strong measures to prevent exchanges with countries that have not fulfilled their carbon emission commitments, banning fossil fuel subsidies on a global scale, and promoting the use of clean energy In the next decade, we will strengthen research on energy and climate, and invest $400 billion in clean energy infrastructure. Biden’s energy policy aims to stimulate the development of clean energy industry in the United States and enhance the competitiveness of the United States in the global clean energy market.